@aral glad you're #ownyourdata blogging :)
Counter-examples for you:
Consumer OSS: #Firefox #Chrome #Android
Enthusiast-first tech: URLs #hashtags Twitter Facebook
(all of which were iterated and eventually mass adopted)
Instead of worrying about OSS/enthusiast-tech failures (good to document, but mere strawmen to argue against),
At indiewebcamp we prefer to focus on successes, research & analyze them, and do better. You should join us more often in IRC and read/contribute to the wiki: http://indiewebcamp.com/